40 /120
|
Weak |
-40.9nT |
Weakening |
|
Weak |
Key Insights
Iceland's Northern Lights forecast for 21:00-00:00 looks quiet, with potentially light to moderate activity. Due to actual conditions having missed the forecast mark so far, it is important to check the actual data here as darkness approaches. Arrival of the Aurora locally is estimated at 23:00, with some visibility likely before if the Aurora is 'active' or 'very active'.
Current Northern Lights Conditions in Iceland
Kp
2
|
The current Aurora is a Kp2 (on a scale of 0-9) and will cover all of Iceland from 23:00. Viewed from Reykjavík, when active, the Aurora is positioned above the NNW horizon. When viewing the Aurora from the South Coast, seek higher ground and avoid mountains in a NNE-NNW direction where possible. Aurora Conditions in 49 minutes: The Aurora will expand to a Kp2-3. |
Weakening
|
Energy has been released and activity is declining. The Aurora might still be faintly visible, or not at all. This may be temporary but if readings are between 50nT to -50nT, new energy needs to build up. Refer to the Solar Wind data for more information. |
Northern Lights Solar Wind Data
Speed |
Density |
IMF Bt |
IMF Bz |
508.9km/s | 0.11p/cm3 | 5.98nT | 0.55nT |
Solar Wind & Bz Analysis


20 /120
|
Weak |
Solar wind conditions have been very weak with positive polarity. Visible aurora displays unlikely.
Bz conditions arriving on earth now and over the last 60 minutes have been very weak: Though some periods of negative Bz have occured, overall Solar Wind is weak and is unlikely to contribute a lot of energy. The Aurora Oval (Kp Maximum Reach) may remain stable or weaken with overall activity likely to remain flat.
The Bz index has been negative (southward) for 40% of the last 60 minutes, averaging 1.04 nT with a minimum of -3.94 nT. Extended and strong periods of negative Bz are required to create visible Aurora displays.
Magnetometer Data
-40.9 nT
|
Weakening
|
|
-19 nT
|
Weakening
|
Aurora Chasers Info
This magnetometer section contains data from both the magnetometer in Tromsø and the magnetometer in Reykjavík (Leirvogi). These locations are at latitudes from 69 to 64 degrees north – the Arctic Circle is at 66 degrees north – and allow us to measure aurora activity over a wide area. With these two measurements, it is possible to identify the intensity and also the approximate location of the lights.
Tromsø (69° N): When the Tromsø magnetometer shows increased activity, increased aurora activity can be expected towards the northern (NNE to NNW) horizon. However, weather and atmospheric conditions can affect visibility.
Reykjavík (64° N): Increased readings here indicate northern lights near Iceland, often visible towards the Big Dipper (Ursa Major) (Kp2 to Kp3-4) or directly overhead or towards the southern horizon (Kp4 or higher), when viewed from Reykjavík. The further North you are in Iceland, the better the chances of seeing strong northern lights even with low Kp factors. Staying in the South, you need at least Kp2.
Magnetometer Reading Guide:
Inactivity: Auroras typically become visible when magnetometer readings approach or exceed ±50nT.
Charging Phase: When magnetometers rise above 50nT, it suggests that geomagnetic activity is increasing, and the field is "charging".
Substorm Activity (Active or Very Active): These are usually indicated by sharp drops in magnetometer readings, measuring a decline of 100nT from the starting position or falling below -100nT. Very active substorms will drop well below -250nT and lower.
Weakening Phase: After a substorm, if readings rise from below a negative value, it indicates that the energy is dissipating.
Key Points:
Positive readings above 50nT that are rising generally indicate building geomagnetic activity.
Visibility of the aurora by eye starts from ±50nT, depending on atmospheric conditions, light pollution and other factors.
Readings around or above 100nT suggest auroras might be visible whilst continuing to build energy.
Significant drops below -100nT or sudden changes in readings often signal substorm activity, meaning strong aurora displays.
By monitoring these readings, you can better predict and observe the mesmerizing auroras, whether you're a novice or a seasoned chaser. Always consider local weather conditions and light pollution for the best viewing experience.
Aurora Conditions in 49 minutes
Kp
2-3
|
The Aurora will expand to a Kp2-3. The Kp2-3 will cover all of Iceland from 23:00. Viewed from Reykjavík, when active, the Aurora will be positioned between the NNW horizon and the Big Dipper (Ursa Major) star constellation. In addition it might cover the Faroe Islands and northern-mid Scandinavia. |
Northern Lights Solar Wind Data
Speed |
Density |
IMF Bt |
IMF Bz |
520.1km/s | 0.64p/cm3 | 6.27nT | -0.82nT |
Solar Wind & Bz Analysis


40 /120
|
Weak |
The overall Solar Wind over the next 49 minutes is improving.
Once conditions reach earth, low activity is expected: Though some periods of negative Bz have occured, overall Solar Wind is weak and is unlikely to contribute a lot of energy. The Aurora Oval (Kp Maximum Reach) may remain stable or weaken with overall activity likely to remain flat.
The Bz index is forecasted to be negative (southward) for 73.47% of the next 49 minutes, averaging -0.9 nT with a potential low of -2.79 nT. These conditions favor aurora visibility.
3-Day Aurora Forecast by NOAA
TODAY | |||||
Time UTC | Actual Kp | Cond. met? | Jul 19 | Jul 20 | Jul 21 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00-03:00 |
Kp
1-2
|
No |
Kp
3
|
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
1-2
|
03:00-06:00 |
Kp
2
|
No |
Kp
3
|
Kp
2
|
Kp
2
|
06:00-09:00 |
Kp
N/A
|
N/A |
Kp
2-3
|
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
1-2
|
09:00-12:00 |
Kp
N/A
|
N/A |
Kp
2-3
|
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
1-2
|
12:00-15:00 |
Kp
N/A
|
N/A |
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
1
|
Kp
0-1
|
15:00-18:00 |
Kp
N/A
|
N/A |
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
0-1
|
Kp
1-2
|
18:00-21:00 |
Kp
N/A
|
N/A |
Kp
1
|
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
1
|
21:00-00:00 |
Kp
N/A
|
N/A |
Kp
2
|
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
1-2
|
Source: SWPC NOAA 3-day Forecast | |||||
Details (English only): "No Kp4–5 or greater geomagnetic storms are expected." | |||||