60 /120
|
Good |
-93.5nT |
Weakening |
|
Weak |
Key Insights
The Northern lights forecast for 21:00-00:00 might be better than expected, with light to moderate activity. Current Aurora conditions have exceeded their forecasts, indicating higher than anticipated solar activity. Solar wind conditions change rapidly, check the latest data here as it becomes available. Arrival of the Aurora locally is estimated at 21:00, with some visibility likely before if the Aurora is 'active' or 'very active'.
Current Northern Lights Conditions in Iceland
Kp
3
|
The current Aurora is a Kp3 (on a scale of 0-9) and will cover all of Iceland from 21:00. Viewed from Reykjavík, when active, the Aurora is positioned between the NNW horizon and the Big Dipper (Ursa Major) star constellation. In addition it covers the Faroe Islands and northern-mid Scandinavia. Aurora Conditions in 50 minutes: The Aurora will remain at the same reach. |
Weakening
|
Energy has been released and activity is declining. The Aurora might still be faintly visible, or not at all. This may be temporary but if readings are between 50nT to -50nT, new energy needs to build up. Refer to the Solar Wind data for more information. |
Northern Lights Solar Wind Data
Speed |
Density |
IMF Bt |
IMF Bz |
528.8km/s | 1.34p/cm3 | 7.98nT | 1.88nT |
Solar Wind & Bz Analysis


40 /120
|
Weak |
Solar wind conditions have been weak with positive polarity; visible aurora displays unlikely.
The Bz index is currently positive (north facing). It is unlikely that strong activity will build up under such conditions. The Bz index is one of the important "ingredients" for the formation of the Northern Lights, as it indicates whether the particles of the solar wind are (re)connecting with the magnetic field and thus create energy for the formation of the Northern Lights. This is achieved most efficiently when it is facing south (negative).
Magnetometer Data
-1.2 nT
|
Weakening
|
|
-93.5 nT
|
Weakening
|
Aurora Chasers Info
This magnetometer section contains data from both the magnetometer in Tromsø and the magnetometer in Reykjavík (Leirvogi). These locations are at latitudes from 69 to 64 degrees north – the Arctic Circle is at 66 degrees north – and allow us to measure aurora activity over a wide area. With these two measurements, it is possible to identify the intensity and also the approximate location of the lights.
Tromsø (69° N): When the Tromsø magnetometer shows increased activity, increased aurora activity can be expected towards the northern (NNE to NNW) horizon. However, weather and atmospheric conditions can affect visibility.
Reykjavík (64° N): Increased readings here indicate northern lights near Iceland, often visible towards the Big Dipper (Ursa Major) (Kp2 to Kp3-4) or directly overhead or towards the southern horizon (Kp4 or higher), when viewed from Reykjavík. The further North you are in Iceland, the better the chances of seeing strong northern lights even with low Kp factors. Staying in the South, you need at least Kp2.
Magnetometer Reading Guide:
Inactivity: Auroras typically become visible when magnetometer readings approach or exceed ±50nT.
Charging Phase: When magnetometers rise above 50nT, it suggests that geomagnetic activity is increasing, and the field is "charging".
Substorm Activity (Active or Very Active): These are usually indicated by sharp drops in magnetometer readings, measuring a decline of 100nT from the starting position or falling below -100nT. Very active substorms will drop well below -250nT and lower.
Weakening Phase: After a substorm, if readings rise from below a negative value, it indicates that the energy is dissipating.
Key Points:
Positive readings above 50nT that are rising generally indicate building geomagnetic activity.
Visibility of the aurora by eye starts from ±50nT, depending on atmospheric conditions, light pollution and other factors.
Readings around or above 100nT suggest auroras might be visible whilst continuing to build energy.
Significant drops below -100nT or sudden changes in readings often signal substorm activity, meaning strong aurora displays.
By monitoring these readings, you can better predict and observe the mesmerizing auroras, whether you're a novice or a seasoned chaser. Always consider local weather conditions and light pollution for the best viewing experience.
Aurora Conditions in 50 minutes
Kp
3
|
The Aurora will remain at the same reach. The Kp3 will cover all of Iceland from 21:00. Viewed from Reykjavík, when active, the Aurora will be positioned between the NNW horizon and the Big Dipper (Ursa Major) star constellation. In addition it might cover the Faroe Islands and northern-mid Scandinavia. |
Northern Lights Solar Wind Data
Speed |
Density |
IMF Bt |
IMF Bz |
455.4km/s | 0.37p/cm3 | 7.69nT | 1.29nT |
Solar Wind & Bz Analysis


60 /120
|
Good |
The overall Solar Wind over the next 50 minutes is improving.
Once these conditions arrive on earth, very light auroras might form after 60 minutes or longer, but keep an eye out on magnetometer data once the conditions have arrived on Earth.
The Bz-index will be negative (south) for 58% of time, or a total of 29 minutes over the next 50 minutes with an average of -0.25 nT and a low of -4.96 nT.
The Bz-Index is a key "ingredient" to the creation of the aurora, as it indicates whether energy is building up.
3-Day Aurora Forecast by NOAA
TODAY | |||||
Time UTC | Actual Kp | Cond. met? | Jul 8 | Jul 9 | Jul 10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00-03:00 |
Kp
3
|
No |
Kp
3-4
|
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
1-2
|
03:00-06:00 |
Kp
4
|
Over |
Kp
3-4
|
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
1-2
|
06:00-09:00 |
Kp
3
|
Over |
Kp
2-3
|
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
1-2
|
09:00-12:00 |
Kp
N/A
|
N/A |
Kp
3
|
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
1-2
|
12:00-15:00 |
Kp
N/A
|
N/A |
Kp
2-3
|
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
1-2
|
15:00-18:00 |
Kp
N/A
|
N/A |
Kp
2-3
|
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
1-2
|
18:00-21:00 |
Kp
N/A
|
N/A |
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
1-2
|
21:00-00:00 |
Kp
N/A
|
N/A |
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
1-2
|
Source: SWPC NOAA 3-day Forecast | |||||
Details (English only): "No Kp4–5 or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast." | |||||