20 /120
|
Weak |
-2.2nT |
Light Activity |
|
Weak |
Key Insights
Iceland's Northern Lights forecast for 21:00-00:00 has been hit-and-miss, with potentially light to moderate activity. Due to inconsistent forecast conditions, it is important to check the actuals here as they become available. Arrival of the Aurora locally is estimated at 23:59, with some visibility likely before if the Aurora is 'active' or 'very active'.
Current Northern Lights Conditions in Iceland
Kp
1
|
The current Aurora is a Kp1 (on a scale of 0-9) and will cover northern Iceland from 23:59. Viewed from Reykjavík, when active, the Aurora is positioned closely to the NNW horizon and may not be seen from further south than Hella. Aurora Conditions in 47 minutes: The Aurora will expand to a Kp1-2. |
Light Activity
|
Faint aurora activity can be observed with visible auroras in dark places. Pay attention to Kp position. Use a camera to find the aurora if not visible straight away. |
Northern Lights Solar Wind Data
Speed |
Density |
IMF Bt |
IMF Bz |
567.2km/s | 0.78p/cm3 | 6.55nT | 5.75nT |
Solar Wind & Bz Analysis


25 /120
|
Weak |
Solar wind conditions have been very weak with positive polarity. Visible aurora displays unlikely.
Bz conditions arriving on earth now and over the last 60 minutes have been very weak: Though some periods of negative Bz have occured, overall Solar Wind is weak and is unlikely to contribute a lot of energy. The Aurora Oval (Kp Maximum Reach) may remain stable or weaken with overall activity likely to remain flat.
The Bz index has been negative (southward) for 18.33% of the last 60 minutes, averaging 2.65 nT with a minimum of -2.87 nT. Extended and strong periods of negative Bz are required to create visible Aurora displays.
Magnetometer Data
-18 nT
|
Weakening
|
|
-2.2 nT
|
Light Activity
|
Aurora Chasers Info
This magnetometer section contains data from both the magnetometer in Tromsø and the magnetometer in Reykjavík (Leirvogi). These locations are at latitudes from 69 to 64 degrees north – the Arctic Circle is at 66 degrees north – and allow us to measure aurora activity over a wide area. With these two measurements, it is possible to identify the intensity and also the approximate location of the lights.
Tromsø (69° N): When the Tromsø magnetometer shows increased activity, increased aurora activity can be expected towards the northern (NNE to NNW) horizon. However, weather and atmospheric conditions can affect visibility.
Reykjavík (64° N): Increased readings here indicate northern lights near Iceland, often visible towards the Big Dipper (Ursa Major) (Kp2 to Kp3-4) or directly overhead or towards the southern horizon (Kp4 or higher), when viewed from Reykjavík. The further North you are in Iceland, the better the chances of seeing strong northern lights even with low Kp factors. Staying in the South, you need at least Kp2.
Magnetometer Reading Guide:
Inactivity: Auroras typically become visible when magnetometer readings approach or exceed ±50nT.
Charging Phase: When magnetometers rise above 50nT, it suggests that geomagnetic activity is increasing, and the field is "charging".
Substorm Activity (Active or Very Active): These are usually indicated by sharp drops in magnetometer readings, measuring a decline of 100nT from the starting position or falling below -100nT. Very active substorms will drop well below -250nT and lower.
Weakening Phase: After a substorm, if readings rise from below a negative value, it indicates that the energy is dissipating.
Key Points:
Positive readings above 50nT that are rising generally indicate building geomagnetic activity.
Visibility of the aurora by eye starts from ±50nT, depending on atmospheric conditions, light pollution and other factors.
Readings around or above 100nT suggest auroras might be visible whilst continuing to build energy.
Significant drops below -100nT or sudden changes in readings often signal substorm activity, meaning strong aurora displays.
By monitoring these readings, you can better predict and observe the mesmerizing auroras, whether you're a novice or a seasoned chaser. Always consider local weather conditions and light pollution for the best viewing experience.
Aurora Conditions in 47 minutes
Kp
1-2
|
The Aurora will expand to a Kp1-2. The Kp1-2 will cover all of Iceland from 23:59. Viewed from Reykjavík, when active, the Aurora will be positioned above the NNW horizon. When viewing the Aurora from the South Coast, seek higher ground and avoid mountains in a NNE-NNW direction where possible. |
Northern Lights Solar Wind Data
Speed |
Density |
IMF Bt |
IMF Bz |
533.6km/s | 0.47p/cm3 | 6.58nT | 4.72nT |
Solar Wind & Bz Analysis


20 /120
|
Weak |
Solar Wind strength is declining over the next 47 minutes. Aurora visibility may decrease but remain alert for short-term activity spikes.
The Bz index is forecasted to remain positive (northward), making significant aurora activity unlikely unless conditions become negative.
3-Day Aurora Forecast by NOAA
TODAY | |||||
Time UTC | Actual Kp | Cond. met? | Jul 18 | Jul 19 | Jul 20 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00-03:00 |
Kp
2-3
|
Over |
Kp
2
|
Kp
3
|
Kp
1-2
|
03:00-06:00 |
Kp
2
|
Over |
Kp
1
|
Kp
3
|
Kp
3
|
06:00-09:00 |
Kp
2-3
|
Over |
Kp
2
|
Kp
2-3
|
Kp
2-3
|
09:00-12:00 |
Kp
3-4
|
Over |
Kp
2-3
|
Kp
2-3
|
Kp
1-2
|
12:00-15:00 |
Kp
3-4
|
Yes |
Kp
3-4
|
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
1-2
|
15:00-18:00 |
Kp
3-4
|
Over |
Kp
2
|
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
0-1
|
18:00-21:00 |
Kp
3-4
|
Over |
Kp
2-3
|
Kp
1
|
Kp
1-2
|
21:00-00:00 |
Kp
2
|
No |
Kp
2-3
|
Kp
2
|
Kp
2
|
Source: SWPC NOAA 3-day Forecast | |||||
Details (English only): "No Kp4–5 or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast." | |||||